Trends point to high voter turnout in pivotal Oregon midterm election

The Oregon Midterm Election, set to take place on Nov. 8, will decide the fates of numerous political candidates who managed to survive the state’s primary election last May. 

In just two short months, all 60 seats in the Oregon House of Representatives, as well as 15 of the 30 seats in the Oregon State Senate, will be decided upon by Oregon’s voting bloc. The state’s six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and its lone vacant senate seat are also up for grabs, making this election cycle, as they all are, highly influential for Oregon politics. 

Although midterm elections generally receive less turnout than presidential elections, Oregon has consistently kept well above the national average due to its vote-by mail (VBM) system. Since VBM was made permanent in 1987, the state’s number of registered voters in both presidential and midterm elections has experienced a growth of roughly 10 percentage points, according to a study conducted by political scientist Sean Richey. 

Associate Professor of Political Science Ellen Seljan said there are multiple trends which indicate a high turnout, which could help Democrat candidates.

“The last midterm election had significantly higher than normal turnout levels and it is looking like Oregon is going to have a very competitive Governor’s race,” Seljan said via email. “In this state, high turnout would generally favor the Democratic party.”  

In 2018, Oregon received its greatest voter turnout in a midterm election in more than 25 years, with 63 percent of the population casting a ballot. This year, Oregon’s voter turnout may decrease by a small margin, but there is cause for optimism: The 2022 primaries achieved one of the highest ballot totals in the state’s history.

There are a number of key factors that could positively influence this year’s vote for the Democrats, including Oregon’s automatic voter registration and the recent political outrage caused by the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Despite conventional wisdom being that a president’s political party will lose plenty of seats during a midterm election, Seljan said that this may be mediated some by ongoing trends.

“There are several forces working in opposition to this trend,” Seljan said. “… research suggests that Automatic Voter Registration and Vote By Mail have modest turnout effects, so that helps too. Second, Democrats had control over the redistricting process last year, drawing maps that overall give that party a slight edge.”

Eeshani Thomas ’24, who as a resident of Oregon is following all the candidates closely this year, similarly believes that this year’s midterm could represent a modest reversal of past trends. 

“I do not think it’s going to be a red wave, not in Oregon,” Thomas said. “Oregon is moving more blue, mainly just because of the people moving here. So I think that even if politically there is a red wave happening, Oregon is not part of that.”    

As for the elections themselves, a variety of headlines leave ample room for intrigue. Kate Brown’s departure, for one, has left a vacancy in the state’s governorship. While republicans have not claimed the governorship in Oregon since 1982, Politico notes that a couple trends — including, independent Betsy Johnson’s candidacy and state redistricting — could swing the election in the GOP’s favor.   

Additionally, the Oregon State Legislature will see an unusual amount of turnover next year, with 20 members of the House freshmen the midst of their first full term. The Oregon State Senate will also be missing its most senior member, Democrat Peter Courtney, after his retirement. He spent 34 years working in the state legislature.    

In light of this potential for change, Thomas views voting as an essential component of having an American citizenship, and as a privilege that should be exercised by anyone with the means to do so. 

“I am going to vote in this upcoming election,” Thomas said. “I think that voting is very important…it’s part of your civic duty.”

More information on the individual candidates can be found on Vote Smart’s website, which is a nonpartisan group that collects and distributes information on political candidates. You can also find more information on registering to vote or your state’s election process through USA.gov.